MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Sonny Gray · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
modest K rate + contact-shy opp
Chris Bassitt · Over 15.5 16+ Outs
long-leash spot vs softer opp
Sonny Gray · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
quick-hook risk: walks + traffic shorten the start
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
BOS @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
BOS to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
58%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
35%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
48%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
47%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.54 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
BOS SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
61%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
74%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
62%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
BAL SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
82%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
54%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
69%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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