MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Zack Wheeler · Over 6.5 7+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Zack Wheeler · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
walk-prone, opp lineup turns pitch counts ugly
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
ATL @ PHI · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
65%
1st 5 Innings
PHI F5
59%
Game Total
Over 8.5
45%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
49%
Run Line
PHI -1.5
47%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
31%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
49%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore ATL by 1.38 runs across 5,000 trials.
ATL SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
67%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
33%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
66%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
PHI SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
93%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
85%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
37%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
96%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
55%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
47%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
32%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
HR-friendly.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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