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ATH
56-86 · +4 AL WEST · W3 · 5-5 L10
@SAT 9:40 PM ETSEA HOME PARK
66-76 · +3 AL WEST · L2 · 3-7 L10
SEATTLESEA
Weather
59°F · 8mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jeffrey Springs
LHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
6.37
IP
123.0
K/9
7.2
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.50
L5 STARTS9.14 ERA · 12.2% K · 12.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
26%
23%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSweeper
George Kirby
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
4.19
IP
152.2
K/9
7.5
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.35
L5 STARTS6.61 ERA · 15.4% K · 8.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
29%
21%
10%
Sweeper4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballChangeupCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMariners 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATH SEA

Game Markets

ATH @ SEA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

SEA F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

SEA -1.5

41%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

34%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore ATH by 0.60 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATH 3.77, SEA 4.37
  • Jeffrey Springs (ATH) vs George Kirby (SEA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JS

Jeffrey Springs

ATH SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

34%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 22% to reach 5+ against SEA
GK

George Kirby

SEA SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

46%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against ATH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JEFFREY SPRINGS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.1%OPS-against.857
vs Left-handedK%17.3%OPS-against.937
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.712K%22.7%

GEORGE KIRBY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.1%OPS-against.742
vs Left-handedK%18.2%OPS-against.796
ATH vs LHP (team)OPS.727K%24.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SEA BATTERS vs JEFFREY SPRINGS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATH BATTERS vs GEORGE KIRBY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATH 2·SEA 0
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
ATH 4·SEA 5
9 played · 10 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
94%SEA
ATH 12 · SEA 179 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-05ATH 7-6 · One-run game
2026-09-04ATH 7-4
2026-05-27SEA 9-1 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATH OFFENSE

.340L15 team wOBA
+24 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

SEA OFFENSE

.301L15 team wOBA
-16 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT59° · 8mph out to LF
T-MOBILE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Notorious pitcher park.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
59°F
Wind8 mph out to LF
Humidity83%
Rain19%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO