ARIZONAARI
@2026-09-05HOU HOME PARK
73-69 · +1 AL WEST · W3 · 7-3 L10
HOUSTONHOU
Weather
81°F · 13mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ARI HOU

Game Markets

ARI @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

37%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.88 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: ARI 4.35, HOU 4.53
  • Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs Ethan Pecko (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BP

Brandon Pfaadt

ARI SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

99%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

83%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

72%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against HOU
EP

Ethan Pecko

HOU SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

30%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
  • 13% to reach 5+ against ARI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

HOU vs LHP (team)OPS.708K%20.9%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs RHP (team)OPS.681K%19.9%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

HOU BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ARI 0·HOU 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
ARI 0·HOU 1
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%HOU
ARI 0 · HOU 35 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-05HOU 3-1
2025-07-23HOU 4-3 · One-run game
2025-07-23HOU 3-1
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ARI52¢ · 52%
HOU52¢ · 52%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
ARI -1.5 ·
HOU +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT98.597.58.57.588.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

ARI OFFENSE

.289L15 team wOBA
-27 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

HOU OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT81° · 13mph out to LF
MINUTE MAID PARK
98HR
HR factor0.98 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind13 mph out to LF
Humidity84%
Rain17%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ASTROS 54%

Mean score sim 4.44.5 · projected total 8.9 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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