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AI MODEL READ

PARTIAL LINEUPS

WSH vs LAD

Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers

Friday, September 4, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the WSH @ LAD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

WASHINGTONWSH
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAD
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

WSH DUGOUTLAD DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

James Wood (R) vs HP

SL83.8
FB95.6
FB95.1
FB92.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

James Wood in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · JAMES WOOD

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAD to win

63%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAD -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAD

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAD wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYJames Wood at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 82 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Los Angeles D wins

38%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGELAD
LINEUP EDGELAD

WSH STARTER

Jackson Kent

SHAKY
2.7
PROJECTED Ks
85
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 35% · 14% whiffChangeup · 21% · 32% whiffSlider · 18% · 27% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

LAD STARTER

Blake Snell

ELITE
8.5
PROJECTED Ks
116
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 49% · 23% whiffCurveball · 21% · 53% whiffChangeup · 18% · 43% whiff

Blake Snell grades elite (Pitching+ 116) vs Jackson Kent grades poor (Pitching+ 85)

WSH LINEUP

  1. 1James Woodhit 59% · HR 21%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Andrés Chaparro (R)hit 54% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Dylan Crews (R)hit 49% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4CJ Abrams (L)hit 54% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Brady House (R)hit 52% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Yohandy Moraleshit 50% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Harry Ford (R)hit 46% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jacob Young (R)hit 50% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 40% · HR 4%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    40%

    1+ HIT

    7%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    14%

    2+ BASES

    6%

    3+ BASES

    4%

    4+ BASES

    13%

    RBI

    3%

    2+ RBIs

    24%

    SCORES A RUN

LAD LINEUP

  1. 1Tommy Edman (S)hit 67% · HR 14%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mookie Betts (R)hit 66% · HR 14%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Teoscar Hernández (R)hit 66% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Will Smithhit 63% · HR 12%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Max Muncy (L)hit 58% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Miguel Rojas (R)hit 62% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Alex Call (R)hit 54% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Kyle Tucker (L)hit 57% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    16%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Enrique Hernández (R)hit 47% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    47%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

JK

Jackson Kent

WSH SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

29%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 16% to reach 5+ against LAD
BS

Blake Snell

LAD SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

71%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

40%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

49%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

36%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.0 strikeouts
  • 92% to reach 5+ against WSH

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.