MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Jameson Taillon · Over 2.5 3+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
extra-base ceiling vs a flyball pitcher
Vinnie Pasquantino · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
power matchup vs Taillon
Salvador Perez · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
hot bat vs Taillon
Ernie Clement · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Bobby Witt Jr. · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
extra-base ceiling vs a flyball pitcher
Salvador Perez · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
extra-base ceiling vs a flyball pitcher
Nick Loftin · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
hot stretch + soft matchup
Vinnie Pasquantino · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
barrel% surging, sees enough PAs
George Springer · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
platoon split + park combine for TB ceiling
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
TOR @ KC · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
KC F5
39%
Game Total
Over 8.5
55%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
59%
Run Line
KC -1.5
30%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
52%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore KC by 0.75 runs across 5,000 trials.
TOR SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
29%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
5%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
44%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
31%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
KC SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
71%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
28%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Big OF — triples up, HR down.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 5.1–4.3 · projected total 9.4 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
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