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TB vs TEX

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers

Friday, September 4, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the TB @ TEX simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

TAMPA BAYTB
0·0
TEXASTEX
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

TB DUGOUTTEX DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

CH85
CT88.5
FB94.3
FB93.4
FB93.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

TEX to win

53%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

TEX -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL TEX

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

TEX wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 80 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Tampa Bay wins

54%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGETEX
LINEUP EDGETEX

TB STARTER

Drew Rasmussen

GOOD
5.2
PROJECTED Ks
114
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 29% · 26% whiffCutter · 29% · 25% whiffSinker · 23% · 16% whiff

TEX STARTER

Jacob deGrom

ELITE
7.0
PROJECTED Ks
117
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 42% · 25% whiffSlider · 37% · 41% whiffChangeup · 13% · 46% whiff

Jacob deGrom grades elite (Pitching+ 117) vs Drew Rasmussen grades good (Pitching+ 114)

TB LINEUP

  1. 1Yandy Díaz (R)hit 73% · HR 16%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    73%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jonathan Aranda (L)hit 69% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Junior Caminero (R)hit 68% · HR 27%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    35%

    3+ BASES

    29%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Liam Hicks (L)hit 63% · HR 12%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Victor Mesa Jr. (L)hit 56% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Chandler Simpson (L)hit 66% · HR 4%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    4%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Cedric Mullins (L)hit 48% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Richie Palacios (L)hit 52% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Taylor Walls (S)hit 46% · HR 3%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    46%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    3%

    HOME RUN

    19%

    2+ BASES

    8%

    3+ BASES

    4%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

TEX LINEUP

  1. 1Joc Pederson (L)hit 70% · HR 31%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    31%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    33%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    54%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Corey Seager (L)hit 69% · HR 21%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Wyatt Langford (R)hit 69% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    48%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Brandon Nimmo (L)hit 67% · HR 14%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Ezequiel Duran (R)hit 64% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Jake Burger (R)hit 63% · HR 18%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Evan Carter (L)hit 50% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cody Freeman (R)hit 56% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Elias Díaz (R)hit 53% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TB TEX

Game Markets

TB @ TEX · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TEX to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

TEX F5

45%

Game Total

Over 8.5

35%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

35%

Run Line

TEX -1.5

34%

Team Total

TB Over 4.5

32%

Team Total

TEX Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 7.31 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: TB 3.60, TEX 3.71
  • Drew Rasmussen (TB) vs Jacob deGrom (TEX)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DR

Drew Rasmussen

TB SP · vs. TEX

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against TEX
JD

Jacob deGrom

TEX SP · vs. TB

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

81%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

28%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

53%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

25%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

31%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.0 strikeouts
  • 81% to reach 5+ against TB

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.