MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Andre Pallante · Over 2.5 3+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Cole Carrigg · Under 0.5 <1 Runs
leadoff spot, 2-3-4 drives him in
Bryan Torres · Over 0.5 1+ HR
platoon edge + park boost
Jordan Walker · Over 0.5 1+ HR
30+ HR pace hitting an exploitable arm
Nathan Church · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
power matchup vs Feltner
Jake McCarthy · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
vs this arm — career SLG over .500
Mickey Moniak · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
vs this arm — career SLG over .500
Cole Carrigg · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Hunter Goodman · Over 0.5 1+ HR
matchup grade lights up the HR pricing
Cole Carrigg · Under 0.5 <1 Hits
hot stretch + soft matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
STL @ COL · full-game reads
Moneyline
STL to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
COL F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
73%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
70%
Run Line
COL -1.5
31%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
66%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
57%
THE READ
STL projects to outscore COL by 0.94 runs across 5,000 trials.
STL SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
23%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
51%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
COL SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
6%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Altitude — extreme run environment.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 6.4–5.5 · projected total 11.9 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
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