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AI MODEL READ

LEAGUE AVG

SF vs NYM

San Francisco Giants at New York Mets

Friday, September 4, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SF @ NYM simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN FRANCISCOSF
0·0
NEW YORKNYM
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

SF DUGOUTNYM DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB92.5
CV76.6
CT90

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

NYM to win

56%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

NYM -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL NYM

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

NYM wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 3

event 1 / 84 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

New York M wins

46%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGENYM

SF STARTER

Matt Wilkinson

SHAKY
2.6
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 55% · 14% whiffChangeup · 24% · 12% whiff

NYM STARTER

Nolan McLean

GOOD
5.9
PROJECTED Ks
105
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 33% · 13% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 20% · 27% whiffCurveball · 15% · 40% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

Nolan McLean grades good (Pitching+ 105) vs Matt Wilkinson grades poor (Pitching+ 95)

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

MW

Matt Wilkinson

SF SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

60%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

28%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.6 strikeouts
  • 13% to reach 5+ against NYM
NM

Nolan McLean

NYM SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

46%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 74% to reach 5+ against SF

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.