AI MODEL READ
PRE-LINEUPNYY vs SD
New York Yankees at San Diego Padres
Friday, September 4, 2026
SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET
Watch the model run this game.
One representative trial from the NYY @ SD simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.
FIELD
PITCH SEQUENCE
League Avg (R) vs HP
OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
League Avg in this spot
BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG
PITCHER PROPS · HP
GAME MARKETS · LIVE
updating per event
MONEYLINE
SD to win
TOTAL
Over 8.5
RUN LINE
SD -1.5
TEAM TOTAL SD
Over 4.5
FIRST 5 INN
SD wins F5
event 1 / 77 · pitching
Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.
I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL
Win probability + total.
GAME WINNER
San Diego wins
5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION
II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN
Who has the advantage tonight.
The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.
NYY STARTER
Carlos Rodón
SHAKY- 4.9
- PROJECTED Ks
- 93
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.
SD STARTER
Robbie Ray
SHAKY- 5.1
- PROJECTED Ks
- 87
- PITCHING+
GO-TO PITCHES
Robbie Ray grades poor (Pitching+ 87) vs Carlos Rodón grades poor (Pitching+ 93)
NYY LINEUP
1Ben Rice (L)hit 73% · HR 34%COLD·UNLUCKY›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
37%
2+ HITS
34%
HOME RUN
55%
2+ BASES
43%
3+ BASES
36%
4+ BASES
44%
RBI
20%
2+ RBIs
61%
SCORES A RUN
2Cody Bellingerhit 68% · HR 13%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
26%
3+ BASES
17%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
51%
SCORES A RUN
3Luis García Jr. (L)hit 75% · HR 31%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
39%
2+ HITS
31%
HOME RUN
57%
2+ BASES
44%
3+ BASES
36%
4+ BASES
49%
RBI
26%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
4Spencer Jones (L)hit 68% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
41%
RBI
19%
2+ RBIs
47%
SCORES A RUN
5Trent Grisham (L)hit 59% · HR 17%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
59%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
19%
4+ BASES
36%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
6Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)hit 60% · HR 18%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
38%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
7George Lombard Jr. (R)hit 61% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
8Ryan McMahon (L)hit 56% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
9Austin Wells (L)hit 52% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
28%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
37%
SCORES A RUN
SD LINEUP
1Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)hit 69% · HR 15%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
32%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
2Samad Taylorhit 63% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
11%
4+ BASES
25%
RBI
8%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
3Manny Machado (R)hit 58% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
58%
1+ HIT
21%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
4Ty France (R)hit 60% · HR 13%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
13%
HOME RUN
35%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
32%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
5Jackson Merrill (L)hit 61% · HR 11%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
61%
1+ HIT
23%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
14%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
6Austin Hays (R)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
25%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
7Xander Bogaerts (R)hit 50% · HR 5%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
50%
1+ HIT
14%
2+ HITS
5%
HOME RUN
22%
2+ BASES
9%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
18%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
27%
SCORES A RUN
8Luis Campusano (R)hit 52% · HR 7%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
52%
1+ HIT
15%
2+ HITS
7%
HOME RUN
27%
2+ BASES
13%
3+ BASES
8%
4+ BASES
21%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
25%
SCORES A RUN
9Jake Cronenworth (L)hit 46% · HR 4%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
46%
1+ HIT
11%
2+ HITS
4%
HOME RUN
19%
2+ BASES
8%
3+ BASES
5%
4+ BASES
17%
RBI
5%
2+ RBIs
24%
SCORES A RUN
EDGE TIER · UNLOCK
Every bat, graded by the sim.
Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.
UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/moIII · EVERY MARKET WE RAN
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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
Game Markets
NYY @ SD · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
SD F5
37%
Game Total
Over 8.5
49%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
54%
Run Line
SD -1.5
26%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
36%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore SD by 1.10 runs across 5,000 trials.
- Projected runs: NYY 5.00, SD 3.90
- Carlos Rodón (NYY) vs Robbie Ray (SD)
- Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
Carlos Rodón
NYY SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
28%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
36%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
23%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.
- Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
- 56% to reach 5+ against SD
Robbie Ray
SD SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
96%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
66%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.
- Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
- 61% to reach 5+ against NYY
BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
IV · METHODOLOGY
How this read was built.
- Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
- What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
- Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.
DISCLOSURE
BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.