MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Ryan Jeffers · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
elite contact + lineup behind sees traffic
Trevor Larnach · Over 1.5 2+ TB
matchup grade unlocks TB upside
Ryan Jeffers · Over 0.5 1+ HR
L30 power profile + matchup edge
Munetaka Murakami · Over 0.5 1+ HR
matchup grade lights up the HR pricing
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
MIN @ CWS · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIN to win
57%
1st 5 Innings
CWS F5
37%
Game Total
Over 8.5
53%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
52%
Run Line
CWS -1.5
28%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
51%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
MIN projects to outscore CWS by 0.93 runs across 5,000 trials.
MIN SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
80%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
33%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
20%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
76%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
45%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
53%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
40%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
CWS SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
30%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight HR boost.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 5.1–4.1 · projected total 9.2 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.