BETFLYAISIGN IN

AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

MIL vs CIN

Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds

Friday, September 4, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the MIL @ CIN simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

MILWAUKEEMIL
0·0
CINCINNATICIN
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

MIL DUGOUTCIN DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Sal Frelick (R) vs HP

FB93.8
CV78.1
SL85.3
FB94.9

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Sal Frelick in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · SAL FRELICK

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CIN to win

35%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CIN -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CIN

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CIN wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYSal Frelick at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 87 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Cincinnati wins

65%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

sim-led read — sharp books close, not identical

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEMIL
LINEUP EDGEMIL

MIL STARTER

Shane Drohan

AVERAGE
6.1
PROJECTED Ks
98
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 28% · 30% whiffSlider · 21% · 40% whiffSinker · 21% · 14% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

CIN STARTER

Rhett Lowder

SHAKY
3.1
PROJECTED Ks
93
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 29% · 7% whiffSlider · 27% · 32% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 21% · 12% whiff

Rhett Lowder grades poor (Pitching+ 93) vs Shane Drohan grades avg (Pitching+ 98)

MIL LINEUP

  1. 1Sal Frelickhit 69% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    51%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Jake Bauers (L)hit 72% · HR 27%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    72%

    1+ HIT

    36%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    51%

    2+ BASES

    38%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    43%

    RBI

    21%

    2+ RBIs

    60%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jackson Chourio (R)hit 76% · HR 25%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    76%

    1+ HIT

    41%

    2+ HITS

    25%

    HOME RUN

    55%

    2+ BASES

    39%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    46%

    RBI

    24%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Christian Yelich (L)hit 71% · HR 17%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    42%

    RBI

    20%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5William Contreras (R)hit 69% · HR 15%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Brice Turang (L)hit 66% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    26%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Garrett Mitchell (L)hit 71% · HR 15%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    49%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Cooper Pratthit 66% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9David Hamilton (L)hit 62% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

CIN LINEUP

  1. 1Dane Myers (R)hit 63% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Elly De La Cruz (S)hit 67% · HR 21%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    21%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Sal Stewart (R)hit 66% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    24%

    4+ BASES

    38%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    42%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Tyler Stephenson (R)hit 58% · HR 14%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Eugenio Suárez (R)hit 55% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6JJ Bleday (L)hit 55% · HR 17%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    17%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Matt McLain (R)hit 50% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Héctor Rodríguez (L)hit 54% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Edwin Arroyohit 52% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    25%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

Every bat, graded by the sim.

Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

UPGRADE TO EDGE — $10/mo

III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

SD

Shane Drohan

MIL SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

22%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 69% to reach 5+ against CIN
RL

Rhett Lowder

CIN SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

76%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

59%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against MIL

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.