BETFLYAISIGN IN
LOS ANGELESLAA
53-88 · +5 AL WEST · L3 · 1-9 L10
@FRI 6:45 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
70-72 · +4 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 7-3 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
80°F · 3mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Tyler Jones K+0.0%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Ryan Johnson
RHP · LAAPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
5.17
IP
78.1
K/9
6.7
BB/9
4.4
WHIP
1.39
L5 STARTS1.65 ERA · 18.5% K · 12% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
31%
28%
26%
15%
CutterSinkerSplit-FingerSweeper
Jared Jones
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
4.46
IP
78.2
K/9
10.5
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.23
L5 STARTS5.68 ERA · 28.8% K · 11.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
33%
18%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

LAA PIT

Game Markets

LAA @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

41%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

49%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore LAA by 0.62 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: LAA 4.17, PIT 4.79
  • Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) vs Braxton Ashcraft (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
YK

Yusei Kikuchi

LAA SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against PIT
BA

Braxton Ashcraft

PIT SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

60%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
  • 55% to reach 5+ against LAA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

RYAN JOHNSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%16.5%OPS-against.771
vs Left-handedK%17.5%OPS-against.765
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.755K%23.6%

JARED JONES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.5%OPS-against.645
vs Left-handedK%29.1%OPS-against.766
LAA vs RHP (team)OPS.678K%25.3%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs RYAN JOHNSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

LAA BATTERS vs JARED JONES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
LAA 0·PIT 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
LAA 0·PIT 1
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%PIT
LAA 8 · PIT 11 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-04PIT 1-0 · Pitchers duel
2025-04-25LAA 4-3 · One-run game
2025-04-24PIT 3-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
LAA39¢ · 39%
PIT79¢ · 79%
Total 7.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
LAA -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→7.5→8.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

LAA OFFENSE

.268L15 team wOBA
-48 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

PIT OFFENSE

.283L15 team wOBA
-34 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT80° · 3mph out to LF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
80°F
Wind3 mph out to LF
Humidity80%
Rain11%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
JONES
Called K rate0.0% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr16

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PIRATES 58%

Mean score sim 4.2–4.8 · projected total 9.0 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

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