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AI MODEL READ

PRE-LINEUP

DET vs CLE

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

Friday, September 4, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the DET @ CLE simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

DETROITDET
0·0
CLEVELANDCLE
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

DET DUGOUTCLE DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Gleyber Torres (R) vs HP

SL86.9
FB95

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Gleyber Torres in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · GLEYBER TORRES

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

CLE to win

50%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

CLE -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL CLE

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

CLE wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYGleyber Torres at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 75 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Cleveland wins

48%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEDET
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

DET STARTER

Keider Montero

AVERAGE
2.4
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 31% · 14% whiffSinker · 22% · 9% whiffSlider · 19% · 30% whiff

CLE STARTER

Logan Allen

SHAKY
3.1
PROJECTED Ks
88
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 16% whiffCutter · 27% · 23% whiffSinker · 17% · 4% whiff

Logan Allen grades poor (Pitching+ 88) vs Keider Montero grades avg (Pitching+ 95)

DET LINEUP

  1. 1Gleyber Torres (R)hit 63% · HR 10%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Kevin McGonigle (L)hit 63% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Hao-Yu Lee (R)hit 63% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Dillon Dingler (R)hit 66% · HR 16%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    42%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Riley Greenehit 63% · HR 13%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Ben Malgeri (R)hit 59% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Spencer Torkelson (R)hit 55% · HR 12%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Max Clark (L)hit 58% · HR 8%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Javier Báez (R)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    27%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

CLE LINEUP

  1. 1Steven Kwan (L)hit 69% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Chase DeLauter (L)hit 70% · HR 13%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    27%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    41%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3José Ramírez (S)hit 62% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Jo Adell (R)hit 64% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    41%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Nathaniel Lowe (L)hit 64% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Angel Genao (S)hit 60% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Travis Bazzana (L)hit 55% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Patrick Bailey (S)hit 53% · HR 8%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    53%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Brayan Rocchio (S)hit 54% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    54%

    1+ HIT

    16%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    23%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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Both full lineups with per-hitter sim numbers — hit and HR odds, hot and cold form, and where the damage is likely to come from.

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

AS

Andrew Sears

DET SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

18%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.2 strikeouts
  • 7% to reach 5+ against CLE
FG

Foster Griffin

CLE SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

43%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 48% to reach 5+ against DET

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.