MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Pete Alonso · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
form + position drive the RBI projection
Ranger Suarez · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
contact lineup limits the K ceiling
Adley Rutschman · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
cleanup spot + hot bat = RBI machine
Coby Mayo · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs
hot bat in run-producing spot
Coby Mayo · Over 0.5 1+ HR
L30 power profile + matchup edge
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
BOS @ BAL · full-game reads
Moneyline
BOS to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
BAL F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
55%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
58%
Run Line
BAL -1.5
34%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
49%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
46%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 9.53 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
BOS SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
97%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
59%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
74%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
61%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
BAL SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
81%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
52%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
70%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
57%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Mean score sim 4.9–4.6 · projected total 9.5 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
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