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AI MODEL READ

LEAGUE AVG

ATL vs PHI

Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies

Friday, September 4, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the ATL @ PHI simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

ATLANTAATL
0·0
PHILADELPHIAPHI
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

ATL DUGOUTPHI DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB93.5
FB95.2
SL84.7
CV77.6
SL86

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PHI to win

51%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PHI -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PHI

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PHI wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 5

event 1 / 80 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEATL

ATL STARTER

Chris Sale

ELITE
8.2
PROJECTED Ks
122
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 27% whiffSlider · 40% · 39% whiffChangeup · 11% · 32% whiff

PHI STARTER

Cristopher Sánchez

GOOD
8.9
PROJECTED Ks
114
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 43% · 12% whiffChangeup · 38% · 47% whiffSlider · 19% · 46% whiff

Cristopher Sánchez grades good (Pitching+ 114) vs Chris Sale grades elite (Pitching+ 122)

II · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

Swipe the whole board.

One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

18 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 2

CS

Chris Sale

ATL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

46%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

61%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.3 strikeouts
  • 93% to reach 5+ against PHI
CS

Cristopher Sánchez

PHI SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

97%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

55%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

93%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

45%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.9 strikeouts
  • 97% to reach 5+ against ATL

III · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.