ATH
55-86 · +4 AL WEST · W2 · 4-6 L10
@FRI 10:10 PM ETSEA HOME PARK
66-75 · +3 AL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
SEATTLESEA
Weather
Home plate ump
Sean Barber K-0.3%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Kade Morris
RHP · ATHPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
10.90
IP
17.1
K/9
5.2
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
2.13
L5 STARTS8.71 ERA · 9% K · 6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
20%
Sinker4-Seam Fastball
Logan Gilbert
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
3.71
IP
165.0
K/9
9.6
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.07
L5 STARTS5.36 ERA · 27.7% K · 8.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
23%
14%
8%
4-Seam FastballSliderSplit-FingerCurveballChangeupCutter
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMariners 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATH SEA

Game Markets

ATH @ SEA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

SEA F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

SEA -1.5

40%

Team Total

ATH Over 4.5

34%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore ATH by 0.64 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATH 3.75, SEA 4.39
  • Jeffrey Springs (ATH) vs George Kirby (SEA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JS

Jeffrey Springs

ATH SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

14%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against SEA
GK

George Kirby

SEA SP · vs. ATH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

62%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

37%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 35% to reach 5+ against ATH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

KADE MORRIS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.799
vs Left-handedK%5.1%OPS-against.130
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.709K%22.8%

LOGAN GILBERT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.9%OPS-against.698
vs Left-handedK%29.9%OPS-against.621
ATH vs RHP (team)OPS.723K%21.4%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

SEA BATTERS vs KADE MORRIS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATH BATTERS vs LOGAN GILBERT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATH 1·SEA 0
4-game set · gm 2 of 4
2026 SEASON
ATH 3·SEA 5
8 played · 11 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
94%SEA
ATH 11 · SEA 179 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-04ATH 7-4
2026-05-27SEA 9-1 · Blowout
2026-05-27SEA 4-1
MARKET SNAPSHOT

Market snapshot unavailable (no recent odds).

LINEUP FORM · L15

ATH OFFENSE

.345L15 team wOBA
+29 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

SEA OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-11 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT
T-MOBILE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Notorious pitcher park.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH

Forecast loading — check back within 3 hours of first pitch.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
BARBER
Called K rate-0.3% vs avg
Runs per 9
Games this yr271

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

MARINERS 59%

Mean score sim 3.84.4 · projected total 8.1 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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