BETFLYAISIGN IN
TORONTOTOR
69-71 · +4 AL EAST · W1 · 6-4 L10
@THU 1:10 PM ETCLE HOME PARK
70-69 · +2 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 7-3 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
89°F · 11mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
José Soriano
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.45
IP
151.1
K/9
8.9
BB/9
4.0
WHIP
1.28
L5 STARTS4.27 ERA · 18.5% K · 8.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
26%
23%
20%
SinkerCurveball4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSlider
Tanner Bibee
RHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
3.88
IP
162.1
K/9
7.1
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.16
L5 STARTS4.30 ERA · 22% K · 6.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
23%
22%
16%
10%
CutterSinker4-Seam FastballChangeupCurveballSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Tanner Bibee · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

K-monster arsenal

-137 DraftKings58% book77% +19pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBlue Jays 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TOR CLE

Game Markets

TOR @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

31%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

TOR projects to outscore CLE by 0.45 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TOR 4.38, CLE 3.93
  • José Soriano (TOR) vs Tanner Bibee (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JS

José Soriano

TOR SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

23%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 72% to reach 5+ against CLE
TB

Tanner Bibee

CLE SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

95%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against TOR

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JOSÉ SORIANO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.1%OPS-against.548
vs Left-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.701
CLE vs RHP (team)OPS.692K%21.0%

TANNER BIBEE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.0%OPS-against.641
vs Left-handedK%20.9%OPS-against.736
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.704K%18.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs JOSÉ SORIANO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TOR BATTERS vs TANNER BIBEE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TOR 1·CLE 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
TOR 3·CLE 2
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%CLE
TOR 51 · CLE 65 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-02TOR 11-0 · Blowout
2026-09-01CLE 6-1
2026-04-26TOR 4-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TOR53¢ · 53%
CLE52¢ · 52%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
TOR -1.5— · —
CLE +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→7→11.5→10.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

TOR OFFENSE

.325L15 team wOBA
+9 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

CLE OFFENSE

.299L15 team wOBA
-17 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT89° · 11mph out to RF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
89°F
Wind11 mph out to RF
Humidity60%
Rain3%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO