BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
70-70 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 4-6 L10
@THU 10:10 PM ETLAD HOME PARK
82-57 · +1 NL WEST · L2 · 4-6 L10
LOS ANGELESLAD
Weather
69°F · 6mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Quinn Mathews
LHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
5.03
IP
19.2
K/9
9.2
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.58
L5 STARTS5.16 ERA · 22.5% K · 9% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Tarik Skubal
LHP · LADPROBABLE
STUFF+118
ERA
2.84
IP
126.2
K/9
10.9
BB/9
1.5
WHIP
0.94
L5 STARTS3.00 ERA · 30.6% K · 5.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
25%
19%
15%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerSliderCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Tarik Skubal · Over 8.5 9+ Ks

punch-out artist with the right matchup

-105 Fanatics51% book57% +5pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDodgers 64%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

STL LAD

Game Markets

STL @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

64%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

54%

Game Total

Over 8.5

32%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

34%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

44%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

24%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore STL by 1.06 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 3.02, LAD 4.09
  • Quinn Mathews (STL) vs Tarik Skubal (LAD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
QM

Quinn Mathews

STL SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

22%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against LAD
TS

Tarik Skubal

LAD SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

97%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

84%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

57%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

89%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.9 strikeouts
  • 97% to reach 5+ against STL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

QUINN MATHEWS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%18.9%OPS-against.756
vs Left-handedK%40.0%OPS-against.619
LAD vs LHP (team)OPS.745K%20.3%

TARIK SKUBAL SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%30.5%OPS-against.554
vs Left-handedK%32.6%OPS-against.720
STL vs LHP (team)OPS.719K%18.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

LAD BATTERS vs QUINN MATHEWS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs TARIK SKUBAL

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 2·LAD 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 4·LAD 1
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%STL
STL 61 · LAD 61 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-03STL 8-6
2026-09-02STL 13-8 · Slugfest
2026-05-03LAD 4-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL30¢ · 30%
LAD75¢ · 75%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5— · —
LAD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→7.5→8→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.307L15 team wOBA
-9 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

LAD OFFENSE

.313L15 team wOBA
-3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT69° · 6mph out to CF
DODGER STADIUM
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

HR-friendly, low BABIP.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
69°F
Wind6 mph out to CF
Humidity68%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO