BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN FRANCISCOSF
58-82 · +4 NL WEST · W1 · 6-4 L10
@THU 12:35 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
68-72 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 5-5 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
91°F · 9mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Blade Tidwell
RHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+113
ERA
4.54
IP
37.2
K/9
7.4
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.22
L5 STARTS5.51 ERA · 19.6% K · 9.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
41%
4-Seam FastballSweeper
Lake Bachar
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.70
IP
75.1
K/9
9.2
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.09
L5 STARTS1.96 ERA · 23.7% K · 18.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
23%
18%
13%
11%
4-Seam FastballSliderSweeperCurveballSplit-Finger
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SF PIT

Game Markets

SF @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

36%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.69 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SF 4.32, PIT 4.37
  • Blade Tidwell (SF) vs Lake Bachar (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BT

Blade Tidwell

SF SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 35% to reach 5+ against PIT
LB

Lake Bachar

PIT SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

23%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

31%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 48% to reach 5+ against SF

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BLADE TIDWELL SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.1%OPS-against.472
vs Left-handedK%14.3%OPS-against.893
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.758K%23.6%

LAKE BACHAR SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.554
vs Left-handedK%25.9%OPS-against.703
SF vs RHP (team)OPS.736K%20.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs BLADE TIDWELL

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SF BATTERS vs LAKE BACHAR

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SF 1·PIT 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
SF 3·PIT 2
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%SF
SF 51 · PIT 51 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-02SF 5-4 · One-run game
2026-09-01PIT 13-12 · Slugfest
2026-05-10SF 7-6 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SF43¢ · 43%
PIT61¢ · 61%
Total 8.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
SF -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→7.5→6.5→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SF OFFENSE

.319L15 team wOBA
+3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

PIT OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-30 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT91° · 9mph out to CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
91°F
Wind9 mph out to CF
Humidity53%
Rain8%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO