BETFLYAISIGN IN
MILWAUKEEMIL
87-53 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 6-4 L10
@THU 7:15 PM ETCHC HOME PARK
78-62 · +2 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 4-6 L10
CHICAGOCHC
Weather
76°F · 3mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 2-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Logan Henderson
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
2.48
IP
76.1
K/9
10.1
BB/9
1.6
WHIP
0.83
L5 STARTS2.24 ERA · 27.4% K · 4.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
31%
20%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutter
Kevin Gausman
RHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
4.52
IP
155.1
K/9
9.0
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.27
L5 STARTS5.27 ERA · 25% K · 6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
51%
39%
10%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIL CHC

Game Markets

MIL @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

34%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

23%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

29%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore CHC by 1.34 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.78, CHC 3.44
  • Logan Henderson (MIL) vs Kevin Gausman (CHC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LH

Logan Henderson

MIL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

62%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

41%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against CHC
KG

Kevin Gausman

CHC SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

73%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

38%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against MIL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

LOGAN HENDERSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%31.6%OPS-against.561
vs Left-handedK%29.3%OPS-against.573
CHC vs RHP (team)OPS.757K%21.4%

KEVIN GAUSMAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.3%OPS-against.766
vs Left-handedK%21.4%OPS-against.675
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.756K%21.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CHC BATTERS vs LOGAN HENDERSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIL BATTERS vs KEVIN GAUSMAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIL 2·CHC 1
4-game set · gm 4 of 4
2026 SEASON
MIL 6·CHC 5
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%MIL
MIL 170 · CHC 155 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-02MIL 9-5
2026-09-01MIL 9-4
2026-08-31CHC 17-3 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIL52¢ · 52%
CHC51¢ · 51%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
MIL -1.5— · —
CHC +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→14.5→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIL OFFENSE

.361L15 team wOBA
+44 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

CHC OFFENSE

.366L15 team wOBA
+50 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT76° · 3mph out to CF
WRIGLEY FIELD
95HR
HR factor0.95 · below avg
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Wind-dependent — check gametime.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
76°F
Wind3 mph out to CF
Humidity88%
Rain17%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO