MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Joey Cantillo · Under 14.5 <15 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Joey Cantillo · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
TOR @ CLE · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
CLE F5
29%
Game Total
Over 8.5
33%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
35%
Run Line
CLE -1.5
24%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
38%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
24%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore CLE by 1.01 runs across 5,000 trials.
TOR SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
95%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
88%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
76%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
61%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
42%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
57%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
10%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
20%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
11%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
CLE SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
71%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
53%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
11%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
55%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
13%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
40%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
26%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Pitcher-friendly.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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