BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
69-70 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 3-7 L10
@WED 10:10 PM ETLAD HOME PARK
82-56 · +1 NL WEST · L1 · 5-5 L10
LOS ANGELESLAD
Weather
71°F · 6mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Alan Porter K-0.9%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Brycen Mautz
LHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
9.00
IP
6.0
K/9
15.0
BB/9
4.5
WHIP
2.00
L5 STARTS9.00 ERA · 34.5% K · 10.3% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
RHP · LADPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
2.56
IP
158.0
K/9
8.7
BB/9
2.0
WHIP
0.89
L5 STARTS2.01 ERA · 27.8% K · 6.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
27%
27%
13%
13%
13%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerCutterCurveballSinkerSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

Under 5.5 (F5) · f5_total

pitcher's duel + park suppresses runs

— Kalshi67% book80% +13pp

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Yoshinobu Yamamoto · Over 18.5 19+ Outs

innings-eater profile gets the green light

-106 BetRivers51% book76% +24pp

Nolan Gorman · Over 0.5 1+ Hits

lineup spot + form pushes Over

+119 DraftKings46% book51% +6pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDodgers 63%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

STL LAD

Game Markets

STL @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

54%

Game Total

Over 8.5

34%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

36%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

44%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

25%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore STL by 1.08 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 3.09, LAD 4.17
  • Quinn Mathews (STL) vs Tarik Skubal (LAD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
QM

Quinn Mathews

STL SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

20%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against LAD
TS

Tarik Skubal

LAD SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

49%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

76%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.5 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against STL
SO

Shohei Ohtani

LAD · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
JW

Jordan Walker

STL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
AB

Alec Burleson

STL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 23% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
FF

Freddie Freeman

LAD · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

29%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 29% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
MB

Mookie Betts

LAD · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
TH

Teoscar Hernández

LAD · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
BT

Bryan Torres

STL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 25% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
TE

Tommy Edman

LAD · bats S · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 24% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
IH

Iván Herrera

STL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 23% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
MR

Miguel Rojas

LAD · bats R · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 64%.

  • Batting 5 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
MM

Max Muncy

LAD · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 54%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
KT

Kyle Tucker

LAD · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
LB

Leo Bernal

STL · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 5
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
NG

Nolan Gorman

STL · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

48%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 48%.

  • Batting 6
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
HF

Hunter Feduccia

LAD · bats L · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

29%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats L
  • Facing Quinn Mathews
NC

Nathan Church

STL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
JF

José Fermín

STL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

18%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

5%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
TS

Thomas Saggese

STL · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 61%.

  • Batting 9
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Tarik Skubal
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRYCEN MAUTZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%33.3%OPS-against.952
vs Left-handedK%36.4%OPS-against.855
LAD vs RHP (team)OPS.763K%20.5%

YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.8%OPS-against.573
vs Left-handedK%25.5%OPS-against.533
STL vs LHP (team)OPS.721K%18.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

LAD BATTERS vs BRYCEN MAUTZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 1·LAD 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 3·LAD 1
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%STL
STL 60 · LAD 61 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-02STL 13-8 · Slugfest
2026-05-03LAD 4-1
2026-05-02STL 3-2 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL29¢ · 29%
LAD75¢ · 75%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5— · —
LAD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→7.5→8→7.5→8→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-11 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

LAD OFFENSE

.298L15 team wOBA
-18 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT71° · 6mph out to CF
DODGER STADIUM
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

HR-friendly, low BABIP.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
71°F
Wind6 mph out to CF
Humidity55%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
PORTER
Called K rate-0.9% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr327

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

DODGERS 63%

Mean score sim 3.1–4.2 · projected total 7.3 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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