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AI MODEL READ

SETTLED

SF vs PIT

San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates

Wednesday, September 2, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the SF @ PIT simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

SAN FRANCISCOSF
0·0
PITTSBURGHPIT
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

SF DUGOUTPIT DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB94.4
FB94.7
CT88
FB93.6

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

PIT to win

53%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

PIT -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL PIT

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

PIT wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 80 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Pittsburgh wins

53%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEEVEN

SF STARTER

Blade Tidwell

SHAKY
4.0
PROJECTED Ks
93
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sweeper · 36% · 34% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 31% · 20% whiffSinker · 15% · 9% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

PIT STARTER

Lake Bachar

SHAKY
5.1
PROJECTED Ks
95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 29% · 16% whiffSlider · 24% · 39% whiffCurveball · 18% · 37% whiff

Lake Bachar grades poor (Pitching+ 95) vs Blade Tidwell grades poor (Pitching+ 93)

SF LINEUP

  1. 1Drew Gilbert (L)hit 64% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    26%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Rafael Devers (L)hit 70% · HR 27%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    32%

    2+ HITS

    27%

    HOME RUN

    50%

    2+ BASES

    37%

    3+ BASES

    30%

    4+ BASES

    41%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    53%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Eldridge (L)hit 67% · HR 19%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    45%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    45%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Turner Hill (L)hit 60% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Jung Hoo Lee (L)hit 69% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Drew Cavanaugh (L)hit 59% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Nate Furmanhit 56% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Shay Whitcombhit 49% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    49%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Koss (R)hit 52% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

PIT LINEUP

  1. 1Spencer Horwitz (L)hit 62% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    44%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Brandon Lowe (L)hit 66% · HR 23%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    23%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    32%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    37%

    RBI

    16%

    2+ RBIs

    47%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryan Reynolds (S)hit 63% · HR 12%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    23%

    2+ HITS

    12%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Nick Gonzales (R)hit 68% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    29%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    37%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Oneil Cruzhit 61% · HR 18%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    18%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    19%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    43%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Esmerlyn Valdez (R)hit 59% · HR 19%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    38%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Rafael Flores Jr. (R)hit 56% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Jake Mangum (S)hit 58% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Jared Triolo (R)hit 50% · HR 5%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    19%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

SF PIT

Game Markets

SF @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

35%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

42%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.76 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SF 4.33, PIT 4.44
  • Blade Tidwell (SF) vs Lake Bachar (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BT

Blade Tidwell

SF SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

28%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against PIT
LB

Lake Bachar

PIT SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
  • 60% to reach 5+ against SF
RD

Rafael Devers

SF · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

27%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 27% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Lake Bachar
BL

Brandon Lowe

PIT · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

23%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

34%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 23% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Blade Tidwell
BE

Bryce Eldridge

SF · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

48%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Lake Bachar
EV

Esmerlyn Valdez

PIT · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Facing Blade Tidwell
OC

Oneil Cruz

PIT · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 18% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Blade Tidwell
JL

Jung Hoo Lee

SF · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Lake Bachar
RJ

Rafael Flores Jr.

PIT · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Blade Tidwell
NG

Nick Gonzales

PIT · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Blade Tidwell
DG

Drew Gilbert

SF · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 27% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Lake Bachar
SH

Spencer Horwitz

PIT · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 26% against 24% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Blade Tidwell
TH

Turner Hill

SF · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ RBI — 33% against 30% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Lake Bachar
BR

Bryan Reynolds

PIT · bats S · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 65%.

  • Batting 3 · bats S
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Blade Tidwell
DC

Drew Cavanaugh

SF · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Lake Bachar
JM

Jake Mangum

PIT · bats S · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 60%.

  • Batting 8 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Blade Tidwell
NF

Nate Furman

SF · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ RBI at 29% against 30%.

  • Batting 7
  • Facing Lake Bachar
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

54%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 54% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Lake Bachar
JT

Jared Triolo

PIT · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

15%

Total Bases

2+ bases

24%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 63%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Blade Tidwell
SW

Shay Whitcomb

SF · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

51%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 51% against 63%.

  • Batting 8
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Lake Bachar

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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