BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN DIEGOSD
73-66 · +2 NL WEST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@WED 12:40 PM ETCIN HOME PARK
66-73 · +5 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 5-5 L10
CINCINNATICIN
Weather
92°F · 6mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Casey Mize
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
3.45
IP
109.2
K/9
7.9
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.10
L5 STARTS6.46 ERA · 10.5% K · 7.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
25%
24%
11%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSinkerSlurve
Brandon Williamson
LHP · CINPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
6.11
IP
28.0
K/9
6.1
BB/9
6.4
WHIP
1.64
L5 STARTS5.22 ERA · 15.1% K · 17% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
24%
21%
11%
10%
CutterChangeup4-Seam FastballSinkerSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPadres 60%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD CIN

Game Markets

SD @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SD to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

32%

Game Total

Over 8.5

68%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

68%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

26%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

64%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

SD projects to outscore CIN by 1.52 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 6.31, CIN 4.79
  • Casey Mize (SD) vs Brandon Williamson (CIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CM

Casey Mize

SD SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

34%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against CIN
BW

Brandon Williamson

CIN SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

42%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CASEY MIZE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.708
vs Left-handedK%25.4%OPS-against.506
CIN vs LHP (team)OPS.736K%25.0%

BRANDON WILLIAMSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%12.5%OPS-against.763
vs Left-handedK%25.0%OPS-against.102
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.707K%21.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CIN BATTERS vs CASEY MIZE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs BRANDON WILLIAMSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 1·CIN 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
SD 4·CIN 3
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%SD
SD 76 · CIN 60 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-01CIN 4-3 · One-run game
2026-08-31SD 5-0
2026-06-10SD 5-4 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SD59¢ · 59%
CIN45¢ · 45%
Total 9.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
SD -1.5— · —
CIN +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9→9.5→9→9.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.308L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

CIN OFFENSE

.307L15 team wOBA
-9 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT92° · 6mph out to RF
GREAT AMERICAN BALL PARK
118HR
HR factor1.18 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

League’s hottest HR park.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
92°F
Wind6 mph out to RF
Humidity40%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO