BETFLYAISIGN IN
MILWAUKEEMIL
86-53 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10
@WED 7:40 PM ETCHC HOME PARK
78-61 · +2 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 4-6 L10
CHICAGOCHC
Weather
81°F · 4mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jacob Misiorowski
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+126
ERA
1.73
IP
151.0
K/9
13.2
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
0.75
L5 STARTS2.32 ERA · 32.2% K · 6.1% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
63%
14%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballCutterCurveballSlider
David Peterson
LHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+89
ERA
5.11
IP
123.1
K/9
8.0
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.52
L5 STARTS3.26 ERA · 23.3% K · 11.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
29%
24%
23%
12%
12%
SinkerSlider4-Seam FastballCurveballChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Jacob Misiorowski · Over 7.5 8+ Ks

high-K profile + cooperative opp

-106 FanDuel51% book70% +18pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 73%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIL CHC

Game Markets

MIL @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

73%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

20%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

43%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

14%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

56%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

21%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore CHC by 2.61 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 5.47, CHC 2.86
  • Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) vs David Peterson (CHC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JM

Jacob Misiorowski

MIL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

98%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

93%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

83%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

52%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

26%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

16%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.6 strikeouts
  • 98% to reach 5+ against CHC
DP

David Peterson

CHC SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

57%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

73%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

60%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against MIL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JACOB MISIOROWSKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%31.5%OPS-against.544
vs Left-handedK%44.6%OPS-against.390
CHC vs LHP (team)OPS.817K%21.6%

DAVID PETERSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%14.8%OPS-against.787
vs Left-handedK%30.1%OPS-against.803
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.754K%21.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CHC BATTERS vs JACOB MISIOROWSKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIL BATTERS vs DAVID PETERSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIL 1·CHC 1
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
MIL 5·CHC 5
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%MIL
MIL 169 · CHC 155 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-01MIL 9-4
2026-08-31CHC 17-3 · Blowout
2026-06-28CHC 4-3 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIL62¢ · 62%
CHC42¢ · 42%
Total 8
Over54¢ · 54%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
MIL -1.5— · —
CHC +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→10→13.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIL OFFENSE

.354L15 team wOBA
+38 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

CHC OFFENSE

.368L15 team wOBA
+52 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT81° · 4mph out to LF
WRIGLEY FIELD
95HR
HR factor0.95 · below avg
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Wind-dependent — check gametime.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind4 mph out to LF
Humidity79%
Rain4%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO