BOSTONBOS
75-65 · +3 AL EAST · L2 · 4-6 L10
@2026-09-02BAL HOME PARK
69-71 · +5 AL EAST · L2 · 6-4 L10
BALTIMOREBAL
Weather
74°F · 3mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETOrioles 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS BAL

Game Markets

BOS @ BAL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

BAL F5

41%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

BAL -1.5

34%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.05 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.63, BAL 4.42
  • Jake Bennett (BOS) vs Brandon Young (BAL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JB

Jake Bennett

BOS SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against BAL
BY

Brandon Young

BAL SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

87%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

59%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 45% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

BAL vs LHP (team)OPS.720K%25.8%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

BOS vs RHP (team)OPS.716K%21.3%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

BAL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·BAL 0
4-game set · gm 1 of 4
2026 SEASON
BOS 6·BAL 6
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%BOS
BOS 180 · BAL 172 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-22BAL 5-1
2026-07-22BOS 6-3
2026-07-21BOS 0-0 · Pitchers duel
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS56¢ · 56%
BAL48¢ · 48%
Total 8.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5 ·
BAL +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.588.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.335L15 team wOBA
+19 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

BAL OFFENSE

.281L15 team wOBA
-35 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT74° · 3mph out to LF
CAMDEN YARDS
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor0.99 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Post-2022 wall changes suppress LH HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
74°F
Wind3 mph out to LF
Humidity88%
Rain0%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ORIOLES 51%

Mean score sim 4.64.4 · projected total 9.1 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

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