BETFLYAISIGN IN
ATLANTAATL
82-57 · +1 NL EAST · L2 · 7-3 L10
@WED 1:05 PM ETWSH HOME PARK
67-74 · +4 NL EAST · W2 · 6-4 L10
WASHINGTONWSH
Weather
92°F · 2mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
2-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Grant Holmes
RHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+89
ERA
3.71
IP
128.2
K/9
7.2
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS3.09 ERA · 14.7% K · 9.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
32%
10%
8%
Slider4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballCutterChangeup
Brad Lord
RHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
3.75
IP
69.2
K/9
8.3
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.19
L5 STARTS4.09 ERA · 26.1% K · 15.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
23%
21%
14%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSliderSweeperChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATL WSH

Game Markets

ATL @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

60%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

33%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore WSH by 0.38 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 5.04, WSH 4.66
  • Grant Holmes (ATL) vs Brad Lord (WSH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GH

Grant Holmes

ATL SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

73%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

31%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against WSH
BL

Brad Lord

WSH SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

25%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

45%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against ATL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GRANT HOLMES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.727
vs Left-handedK%18.4%OPS-against.712
WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.747K%20.6%

BRAD LORD SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.1%OPS-against.523
vs Left-handedK%23.1%OPS-against.759
ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.732K%22.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

WSH BATTERS vs GRANT HOLMES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATL BATTERS vs BRAD LORD

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATL 0·WSH 1
2-game set · gm 2 of 2
2026 SEASON
ATL 8·WSH 4
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%ATL
ATL 173 · WSH 158 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-01WSH 9-5
2026-08-02ATL 4-2
2026-08-01ATL 8-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ATL61¢ · 61%
WSH43¢ · 43%
Total 9
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
ATL -1.5— · —
WSH +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9.5→10→9.5→9last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATL OFFENSE

.292L15 team wOBA
-24 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

WSH OFFENSE

.300L15 team wOBA
-16 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT92° · 2mph in from CF
NATIONALS PARK
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
92°F
Wind2 mph in from CF
Humidity52%
Rain3%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO