MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Gavin Williams · Over 6.5 7+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Spencer Arrighetti · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
TOR @ CLE · full-game reads
Moneyline
CLE to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
CLE F5
52%
Game Total
Over 8.5
36%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
42%
Run Line
CLE -1.5
42%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
29%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
CLE projects to outscore TOR by 0.79 runs across 5,000 trials.
TOR SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
25%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
4%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
35%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
22%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
CLE SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
93%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
84%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
71%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
39%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
75%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
30%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
34%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
22%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Pitcher-friendly.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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