BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
68-70 · +3 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 3-7 L10
@TUE 10:10 PM ETLAD HOME PARK
82-55 · +1 NL WEST · W1 · 6-4 L10
LOS ANGELESLAD
Weather
68°F · 7mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Michael McGreevy
RHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+81
ERA
3.86
IP
142.1
K/9
6.2
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.25
L5 STARTS5.31 ERA · 18.8% K · 7.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
21%
17%
11%
11%
10%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCutterCurveballSweeperSlider
Eric Lauer
LHP · LADPROBABLE
STUFF+88
ERA
4.78
IP
105.1
K/9
6.0
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS4.68 ERA · 17.6% K · 5.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
19%
16%
13%
4-Seam FastballCutterChangeupCurveballSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Eric Lauer · Over 16.5 17+ Outs

innings-eater profile gets the green light

-120 Fanatics55% book75% +21pp

Michael McGreevy · Over 15.5 16+ Outs

elite efficiency, gets the bulk innings

+130 Fanatics43% book61% +17pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCardinals 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

STL LAD

Game Markets

STL @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

61%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

64%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

34%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

54%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore LAD by 0.28 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 5.26, LAD 4.98
  • Michael McGreevy (STL) vs Eric Lauer (LAD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MM

Michael McGreevy

STL SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

55%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.6 strikeouts
  • 11% to reach 5+ against LAD
EL

Eric Lauer

LAD SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

96%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

70%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

64%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 23% to reach 5+ against STL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MICHAEL MCGREEVY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.9%OPS-against.700
vs Left-handedK%14.9%OPS-against.755
LAD vs LHP (team)OPS.740K%20.4%

ERIC LAUER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%13.5%OPS-against.702
vs Left-handedK%20.5%OPS-against.776
STL vs RHP (team)OPS.690K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

LAD BATTERS vs MICHAEL MCGREEVY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs ERIC LAUER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 0·LAD 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 2·LAD 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%LAD
STL 59 · LAD 61 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-03LAD 4-1
2026-05-02STL 3-2 · One-run game
2026-05-02STL 7-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL41¢ · 41%
LAD63¢ · 63%
Total 9
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5— · —
LAD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9→8.5→9last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.304L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

LAD OFFENSE

.299L15 team wOBA
-17 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT68° · 7mph out to CF
DODGER STADIUM
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

HR-friendly, low BABIP.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
68°F
Wind7 mph out to CF
Humidity68%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO