BETFLYAISIGN IN
SAN FRANCISCOSF
57-81 · +4 NL WEST · W2 · 5-5 L10
@TUE 6:40 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
67-71 · +4 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 5-5 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
91°F · 9mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Logan Webb
RHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
3.72
IP
147.2
K/9
7.2
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.10
L5 STARTS2.87 ERA · 21.4% K · 5.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
24%
19%
13%
12%
SinkerChangeupSweeper4-Seam FastballCutter
Paul Skenes
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.79
IP
145.0
K/9
10.9
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.12
L5 STARTS4.48 ERA · 25% K · 12.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
16%
16%
11%
11%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSweeperSplit-FingerSinkerSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Logan Webb · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

modest K rate + contact-shy opp

-154 DraftKings61% book84% +23pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 55%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SF PIT

Game Markets

SF @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

55%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

37%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore SF by 0.32 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SF 3.93, PIT 4.25
  • Logan Webb (SF) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LW

Logan Webb

SF SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

90%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

50%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

55%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against PIT
PS

Paul Skenes

PIT SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

74%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

45%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

35%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 74% to reach 5+ against SF

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

LOGAN WEBB SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.6%OPS-against.593
vs Left-handedK%19.6%OPS-against.651
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.757K%23.8%

PAUL SKENES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%31.4%OPS-against.677
vs Left-handedK%28.1%OPS-against.642
SF vs RHP (team)OPS.734K%20.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs LOGAN WEBB

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SF BATTERS vs PAUL SKENES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SF 0·PIT 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
SF 2·PIT 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%SF
SF 50 · PIT 50 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-10SF 7-6 · One-run game
2026-05-10PIT 13-3 · Blowout
2026-05-09SF 5-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SF42¢ · 42%
PIT61¢ · 61%
Total 7.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
SF -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SF OFFENSE

.313L15 team wOBA
-3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

PIT OFFENSE

.276L15 team wOBA
-40 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT91° · 9mph out to CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
91°F
Wind9 mph out to CF
Humidity49%
Rain9%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO