BETFLYAISIGN IN
SEATTLESEA
64-74 · +3 AL WEST · L5 · 4-6 L10
@TUE 6:45 PM ETBOS HOME PARK
75-63 · +3 AL EAST · W1 · 6-4 L10
BOSTONBOS
Weather
66°F · 4mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Bryan Woo
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
4.36
IP
142.1
K/9
9.0
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
1.10
L5 STARTS4.33 ERA · 26.4% K · 5.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
48%
18%
15%
13%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSliderSweeperChangeup
Jedixson Paez
RHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
18.00
IP
3.0
K/9
0.0
BB/9
9.0
WHIP
2.33
L5 STARTS23.48 ERA · 0% K · 18.8% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMariners 64%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SEA BOS

Game Markets

SEA @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

64%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

28%

Game Total

Over 8.5

61%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

64%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

22%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

62%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore BOS by 2.04 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SEA 6.15, BOS 4.11
  • Bryan Woo (SEA) vs Jedixson Paez (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BW

Bryan Woo

SEA SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

52%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

29%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 52% to reach 5+ against BOS
JP

Jedixson Paez

BOS SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

59%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

23%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.1 strikeouts
  • 6% to reach 5+ against SEA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRYAN WOO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.0%OPS-against.594
vs Left-handedK%22.6%OPS-against.712
BOS vs RHP (team)OPS.715K%21.3%

JEDIXSON PAEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%0.0%OPS-against.400
vs Left-handedK%0.0%OPS-against.183
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.701K%22.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

BOS BATTERS vs BRYAN WOO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SEA BATTERS vs JEDIXSON PAEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SEA 0·BOS 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
SEA 1·BOS 3
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%BOS
SEA 46 · BOS 67 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-31BOS 9-8 · Slugfest
2026-06-21SEA 3-1
2026-06-21BOS 5-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SEA49¢ · 49%
BOS55¢ · 55%
Total 7
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
SEA -1.5— · —
BOS +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→7last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SEA OFFENSE

.290L15 team wOBA
-27 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

BOS OFFENSE

.334L15 team wOBA
+18 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT66° · 4mph out to LF
FENWAY PARK
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor1.08 · +
Doubles factor1.22 · +

Doubles factory (Green Monster).

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
66°F
Wind4 mph out to LF
Humidity90%
Rain22%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO