PHILADELPHIAPHI
78-60 · +2 NL EAST · W5 · 8-2 L10
@2026-09-01ARI HOME PARK
ARIZONAARI
Weather
102°F · 4mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 65%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PHI ARI

Game Markets

PHI @ ARI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

65%

1st 5 Innings

ARI F5

27%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

43%

Run Line

ARI -1.5

20%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

24%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore ARI by 1.71 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.80, ARI 3.10
  • Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JL

Jesús Luzardo

PHI SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

99%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

82%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

70%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

94%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.8 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 9.8 strikeouts
  • 99% to reach 5+ against ARI
ER

Eduardo Rodriguez

ARI SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

68%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

59%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against PHI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs LHP (team)OPS.785K%17.7%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.719K%22.0%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PHI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PHI 1·ARI 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
PHI 2·ARI 0
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%PHI
PHI 52 · ARI 0 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-01PHI 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-04-12AZ 4-3 · One-run game
2026-04-11PHI 4-3 · One-run game
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PHI58¢ · 58%
ARI46¢ · 46%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
PHI -1.5 ·
ARI +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT88.587.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

PHI OFFENSE

.330L15 team wOBA
+14 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

ARI OFFENSE

.298L15 team wOBA
-18 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT102° · 4mph out to CF
CHASE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Slight offensive tilt.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
102°F
Wind4 mph out to CF
Humidity28%
Rain1%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PHILLIES 65%

Mean score sim 4.83.1 · projected total 7.9 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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