MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Grayson Rodriguez · Under 15.5 <16 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Gerrit Cole · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks
K projection runs under in this matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
NYY @ LAA · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
LAA F5
35%
Game Total
Over 8.5
52%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
LAA -1.5
25%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
54%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
36%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore LAA by 1.42 runs across 5,000 trials.
NYY SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
60%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.
LAA SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
71%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
43%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight pitcher tilt.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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