MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Sean Manaea · Over 17.5 18+ Outs
ace-tier — manager extends the leash
Sean Manaea · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
NYM @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
49%
Game Total
Over 8.5
43%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
TB -1.5
42%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
34%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
44%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore NYM by 0.69 runs across 5,000 trials.
NYM SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
64%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
86%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
74%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
61%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.
TB SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
6%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
62%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
29%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
43%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
30%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Interim park post-Tropicana damage.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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