BETFLYAISIGN IN
MIAMIMIA
69-69 · +3 NL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
@TUE 7:40 PM ETKC HOME PARK
62-76 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 8-2 L10
KANSAS CITYKC
Weather
100°F · 11mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Tyler Phillips
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
3.59
IP
105.1
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.37
L5 STARTS3.99 ERA · 25% K · 7.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
24%
24%
17%
9%
SinkerSweeperSplit-FingerCurveball4-Seam Fastball
Randy Dobnak
RHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
1.92
IP
51.2
K/9
5.9
BB/9
3.7
WHIP
1.37
L5 STARTS2.86 ERA · 17.4% K · 9.6% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRoyals 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA KC

Game Markets

MIA @ KC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIA to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

KC F5

43%

Game Total

Over 8.5

58%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

60%

Run Line

KC -1.5

36%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

51%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.95 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: MIA 5.02, KC 4.93
  • Tyler Phillips (MIA) vs Randy Dobnak (KC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TP

Tyler Phillips

MIA SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

28%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 49% to reach 5+ against KC
RD

Randy Dobnak

KC SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

66%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

74%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

62%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 24% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

TYLER PHILLIPS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.8%OPS-against.656
vs Left-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.770
KC vs RHP (team)OPS.721K%20.8%

RANDY DOBNAK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.3%OPS-against.669
vs Left-handedK%13.3%OPS-against.666
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.736K%21.2%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

KC BATTERS vs TYLER PHILLIPS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIA BATTERS vs RANDY DOBNAK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIA 0·KC 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIA 0·KC 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%MIA
MIA 10 · KC 8 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-07-20KC 7-4
2025-07-19MIA 3-1
2025-07-18MIA 8-7 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIA50¢ · 50%
KC54¢ · 54%
Total 9.5
Over54¢ · 54%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
MIA -1.5— · —
KC +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9.5→10→9.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIA OFFENSE

.309L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

KC OFFENSE

.338L15 team wOBA
+22 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT100° · 11mph out to CF
KAUFFMAN STADIUM
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Big OF — triples up, HR down.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
100°F
Wind11 mph out to CF
Humidity23%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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