DETROITDET
63-74 · +4 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 2-8 L10
@TUE 7:40 PM ETMIN HOME PARK
66-72 · +3 AL CENTRAL · W2 · 3-7 L10
MINNESOTAMIN
Weather
87°F · 7mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Troy Melton
RHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
1.86
IP
97.0
K/9
7.4
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.01
L5 STARTS2.15 ERA · 16.4% K · 5.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
19%
19%
9%
8%
4-Seam FastballSliderCutterSplit-FingerSinker
Andrew Morris
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
3.82
IP
63.2
K/9
8.3
BB/9
3.1
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS8.82 ERA · 15.4% K · 0% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
18%
14%
12%
10%
4-Seam FastballCutterSweeperSinkerChangeup
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETTwins 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

DET MIN

Game Markets

DET @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIN to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

36%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.18 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: DET 4.01, MIN 4.17
  • Troy Melton (DET) vs Andrew Morris (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
TM

Troy Melton

DET SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

40%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against MIN
AM

Andrew Morris

MIN SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

27%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

1%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 29% to reach 5+ against DET

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

TROY MELTON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.8%OPS-against.454
vs Left-handedK%17.0%OPS-against.716
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.742K%20.5%

ANDREW MORRIS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.3%OPS-against.612
vs Left-handedK%21.6%OPS-against.746
DET vs RHP (team)OPS.721K%22.5%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

MIN BATTERS vs TROY MELTON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

DET BATTERS vs ANDREW MORRIS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
DET 0·MIN 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
DET 2·MIN 8
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%DET
DET 157 · MIN 149 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-31MIN 11-1 · Blowout
2026-06-11DET 11-0 · Blowout
2026-06-10MIN 6-4
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
DET54¢ · 54%
MIN50¢ · 50%
Total 8.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
DET -1.5 ·
MIN +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.596.58.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

DET OFFENSE

.245L15 team wOBA
-71 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIN OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
ENVIRONMENT87° · 7mph out to CF
TARGET FIELD
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
87°F
Wind7 mph out to CF
Humidity34%
Rain2%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO