BETFLYAISIGN IN
BALTIMOREBAL
69-69 · +4 AL EAST · W4 · 8-2 L10
@TUE 8:40 PM ETCOL HOME PARK
52-86 · +5 NL WEST · L5 · 2-8 L10
COLORADOCOL
Weather
85°F · 9mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Kyle Bradish
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
4.03
IP
143.0
K/9
8.4
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.41
L5 STARTS5.56 ERA · 17.4% K · 9.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
27%
22%
18%
SinkerSliderCurveball4-Seam Fastball
Gabriel Hughes
RHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
6.61
IP
47.2
K/9
7.2
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.45
L5 STARTS10.13 ERA · 15.2% K · 10.7% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETOrioles 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL COL

Game Markets

BAL @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

69%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

68%

Run Line

COL -1.5

28%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

65%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

51%

THE READ

BAL projects to outscore COL by 1.26 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 6.34, COL 5.08
  • Kyle Bradish (BAL) vs Gabriel Hughes (COL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KB

Kyle Bradish

BAL SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

72%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

39%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 49% to reach 5+ against COL
GH

Gabriel Hughes

COL SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

40%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

66%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

52%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.9 strikeouts
  • 15% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KYLE BRADISH SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.7%OPS-against.718
vs Left-handedK%21.9%OPS-against.767
COL vs RHP (team)OPS.753K%21.9%

GABRIEL HUGHES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.3%OPS-against.817
vs Left-handedK%14.0%OPS-against.739
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.712K%23.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

COL BATTERS vs KYLE BRADISH

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs GABRIEL HUGHES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 1·COL 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 1·COL 0
1 played · 18 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%BAL
BAL 11 · COL 8 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-09-01BAL 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2025-07-27BAL 5-1
2025-07-26BAL 18-0 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BAL59¢ · 59%
COL45¢ · 45%
Total 11
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
BAL -1.5— · —
COL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.298L15 team wOBA
-18 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

COL OFFENSE

.307L15 team wOBA
-9 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT85° · 9mph in from CF
COORS FIELD
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.18 · +
Doubles factor1.18 · +

Altitude — extreme run environment.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
85°F
Wind9 mph in from CF
Humidity18%
Rain6%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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