BETFLYAISIGN IN
ATLANTAATL
82-56 · +1 NL EAST · L1 · 7-3 L10
@TUE 6:45 PM ETWSH HOME PARK
66-74 · +4 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
WASHINGTONWSH
Weather
96°F · 6mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
2-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
AJ Smith-Shawver
RHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
5.93
IP
13.2
K/9
6.6
BB/9
5.3
WHIP
1.61
L5 STARTS6.14 ERA · 15.9% K · 12.7% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

Jake Irvin
RHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
5.62
IP
81.2
K/9
9.0
BB/9
4.3
WHIP
1.40
L5 STARTS5.93 ERA · 20.2% K · 13.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
26%
24%
11%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSinkerCutterSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATL WSH

Game Markets

ATL @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

28%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

52%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore WSH by 0.94 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 5.16, WSH 4.22
  • AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) vs Jake Irvin (WSH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AS

AJ Smith-Shawver

ATL SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

45%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 24% to reach 5+ against WSH
JI

Jake Irvin

WSH SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

30%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against ATL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

AJ SMITH-SHAWVER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.8%OPS-against.888
vs Left-handedK%11.9%OPS-against.637
WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.746K%20.6%

JAKE IRVIN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.9%OPS-against.821
vs Left-handedK%22.5%OPS-against.728
ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.730K%22.1%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

WSH BATTERS vs AJ SMITH-SHAWVER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATL BATTERS vs JAKE IRVIN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATL 0·WSH 0
2-game set · gm 1 of 2
2026 SEASON
ATL 8·WSH 3
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%ATL
ATL 173 · WSH 157 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-02ATL 4-2
2026-08-01ATL 8-3
2026-07-31ATL 6-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ATL62¢ · 62%
WSH41¢ · 41%
Total 10
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
ATL -1.5— · —
WSH +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9.5→10→9.5→10last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

ATL OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

WSH OFFENSE

.287L15 team wOBA
-29 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT96° · 6mph out to RF
NATIONALS PARK
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
96°F
Wind6 mph out to RF
Humidity36%
Rain4%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO