TORONTOTOR
68-70 · +5 AL EAST · W3 · 6-4 L10
@2026-08-31CLE HOME PARK
69-68 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 8-2 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
82°F · 3mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 61%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

TOR CLE

Game Markets

TOR @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

61%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

54%

Game Total

Over 8.5

37%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

43%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

28%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore TOR by 0.89 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: TOR 3.35, CLE 4.24
  • Spencer Arrighetti (TOR) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SA

Spencer Arrighetti

TOR SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

36%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

27%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against CLE
GW

Gavin Williams

CLE SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

50%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

52%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

40%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.5 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against TOR

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

CLE vs LHP (team)OPS.669K%22.2%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.707K%18.7%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

TOR BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
TOR 0·CLE 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
TOR 2·CLE 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%CLE
TOR 50 · CLE 64 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-04-26TOR 4-2
2026-04-25TOR 5-3
2026-04-24CLE 8-6
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
TOR40¢ · 40%
CLE64¢ · 64%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
TOR -1.5 ·
CLE +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT87.58last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

TOR OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA
+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

CLE OFFENSE

.308L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT82° · 3mph out to RF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind3 mph out to RF
Humidity64%
Rain2%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

GUARDIANS 61%

Mean score sim 3.44.2 · projected total 7.6 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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