SAN FRANCISCOSF
57-81 · +4 NL WEST · W2 · 5-5 L10
@2026-08-31PIT HOME PARK
67-71 · +4 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 5-5 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
82°F · 4mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SF PIT

Game Markets

SF @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

42%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

36%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.18 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SF 4.01, PIT 4.17
  • Logan Webb (SF) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LW

Logan Webb

SF SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

27%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against PIT
PS

Paul Skenes

PIT SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

28%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

31%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

20%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against SF

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

PIT vs LHP (team)OPS.681K%26.4%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

SF vs RHP (team)OPS.734K%20.5%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SF BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SF 0·PIT 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
SF 2·PIT 1
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%SF
SF 50 · PIT 50 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-10SF 7-6 · One-run game
2026-05-10PIT 13-3 · Blowout
2026-05-09SF 5-2
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SF42¢ · 42%
PIT62¢ · 62%
Total 7.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
SF -1.5 ·
PIT +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

SF OFFENSE

.313L15 team wOBA
-3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

PIT OFFENSE

.276L15 team wOBA
-40 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT82° · 4mph out to LF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
82°F
Wind4 mph out to LF
Humidity77%
Rain9%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PIRATES 53%

Mean score sim 4.04.2 · projected total 8.2 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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