BETFLYAISIGN IN
SEATTLESEA
64-73 · +3 AL WEST · L4 · 4-6 L10
@MON 6:45 PM ETBOS HOME PARK
74-63 · +3 AL EAST · L2 · 6-4 L10
BOSTONBOS
Weather
77°F · 9mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
George Kirby
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
4.02
IP
147.2
K/9
7.7
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.33
L5 STARTS4.42 ERA · 15.8% K · 7.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
29%
21%
10%
Sweeper4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballChangeupCutter
Payton Tolle
LHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+114
ERA
3.09
IP
125.1
K/9
10.1
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.09
L5 STARTS2.39 ERA · 32.8% K · 6.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
48%
23%
18%
8%
4-Seam FastballSinkerCutterCurveballChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRed Sox 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SEA BOS

Game Markets

SEA @ BOS · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

BOS F5

49%

Game Total

Over 8.5

44%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

BOS -1.5

39%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore SEA by 0.40 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SEA 3.93, BOS 4.33
  • George Kirby (SEA) vs Payton Tolle (BOS)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GK

George Kirby

SEA SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

43%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against BOS
PT

Payton Tolle

BOS SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

82%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

51%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

21%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

52%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.7 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.7 strikeouts
  • 82% to reach 5+ against SEA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GEORGE KIRBY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.5%OPS-against.737
vs Left-handedK%18.7%OPS-against.775
BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.767K%20.9%

PAYTON TOLLE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%31.4%OPS-against.604
vs Left-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.743
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.699K%22.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

BOS BATTERS vs GEORGE KIRBY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SEA BATTERS vs PAYTON TOLLE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SEA 0·BOS 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
SEA 1·BOS 2
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%BOS
SEA 46 · BOS 66 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-21SEA 3-1
2026-06-21BOS 5-1
2026-06-20BOS 6-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SEA42¢ · 42%
BOS62¢ · 62%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
SEA -1.5— · —
BOS +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SEA OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-30 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

BOS OFFENSE

.330L15 team wOBA
+14 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT77° · 9mph out to LF
FENWAY PARK
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor1.08 · +
Doubles factor1.22 · +

Doubles factory (Green Monster).

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind9 mph out to LF
Humidity43%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO