Not yet announced by the team.
Not yet announced by the team.
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Aaron Nola · Over 4.5 5+ Ks
K-monster arsenal
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
PHI @ ARI · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
ARI F5
40%
Game Total
Over 8.5
46%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
49%
Run Line
ARI -1.5
30%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
44%
Team Total
ARI Over 4.5
37%
THE READ
PHI projects to outscore ARI by 0.47 runs across 5,000 trials.
PHI SP · vs. ARI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
73%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
56%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
10%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
81%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
32%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
54%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
39%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.
ARI SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
93%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
76%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
64%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP
Pitcher splits unavailable.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight offensive tilt.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Mean score sim 4.5–4.0 · projected total 8.5 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post
That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.
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