NEW YORKNYY
78-59 · +2 AL EAST · W2 · 6-4 L10
@MON 9:38 PM ETLAA HOME PARK
52-85 · +5 AL WEST · L7 · 2-8 L10
LOS ANGELESLAA
Weather
77°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Elmer Rodríguez
RHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
4.70
IP
23.0
K/9
6.3
BB/9
5.1
WHIP
1.52
L5 STARTS4.84 ERA · 15.2% K · 12.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
42%
21%
16%
10%
Sinker4-Seam FastballSweeperChangeup
Walbert Ureña
RHP · LAAPROBABLE
STUFF+100
ERA
2.94
IP
116.1
K/9
8.7
BB/9
5.0
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS4.04 ERA · 24.2% K · 15.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
32%
20%
16%
ChangeupSinker4-Seam FastballSweeper
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYY LAA

Game Markets

NYY @ LAA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

LAA F5

46%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

LAA -1.5

33%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

43%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

39%

THE READ

NYY projects to outscore LAA by 0.32 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYY 4.46, LAA 4.14
  • Elmer Rodríguez (NYY) vs Walbert Ureña (LAA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ER

Elmer Rodríguez

NYY SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

34%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

4%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 17% to reach 5+ against LAA
WU

Walbert Ureña

LAA SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

11%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

50%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 70% to reach 5+ against NYY

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

ELMER RODRÍGUEZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.6%OPS-against.733
vs Left-handedK%10.9%OPS-against.702
LAA vs RHP (team)OPS.680K%25.2%

WALBERT UREÑA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.0%OPS-against.560
vs Left-handedK%19.4%OPS-against.650
NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.716K%24.6%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

LAA BATTERS vs ELMER RODRÍGUEZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYY BATTERS vs WALBERT UREÑA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYY 0·LAA 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYY 2·LAA 2
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%NYY
NYY 65 · LAA 45 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-04-16LAA 11-4 · Blowout
2026-04-15NYY 5-4 · One-run game
2026-04-14LAA 7-1 · Blowout
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYY58¢ · 58%
LAA46¢ · 46%
Total 8.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
NYY -1.5 ·
LAA +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

NYY OFFENSE

.309L15 team wOBA
-7 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

LAA OFFENSE

.262L15 team wOBA
-54 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT77° · 8mph out to CF
ANGEL STADIUM
100HR
HR factor1.00 · neutral
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Slight pitcher tilt.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity55%
Rain0%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO