Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Ian Seymour · Over 6.5 7+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
NYM @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
TB to win
60%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
39%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
44%
Run Line
TB -1.5
43%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
31%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
TB projects to outscore NYM by 0.78 runs across 5,000 trials.
NYM SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
8%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
36%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
23%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
TB SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
90%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
29%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
71%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
50%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
35%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Interim park post-Tropicana damage.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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