MIAMIMIA
69-68 · +3 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@MON 6:45 PM ETWSH HOME PARK
65-74 · +4 NL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
WASHINGTONWSH
Weather
91°F · 4mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 1-2 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Ryan Gusto
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+94
ERA
3.98
IP
63.1
K/9
7.5
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.33
L5 STARTS1.92 ERA · 18.1% K · 4.8% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
19%
14%
13%
12%
9%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCutterSweeperSlider
Will Dion
LHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
3.67
IP
34.1
K/9
10.8
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.14
L5 STARTS2.71 ERA · 30.8% K · 9.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
21%
16%
4-Seam FastballCurveballCutter
MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETNationals 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA WSH

Game Markets

MIA @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

WSH to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

50%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

40%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

49%

THE READ

WSH projects to outscore MIA by 0.60 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.24, WSH 4.85
  • Ryan Gusto (MIA) vs Will Dion (WSH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RG

Ryan Gusto

MIA SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

36%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against WSH
WD

Will Dion

WSH SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

1%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

22%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

13%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

RYAN GUSTO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%22.0%OPS-against.759
vs Left-handedK%16.7%OPS-against.710
WSH vs LHP (team)OPS.780K%23.9%

WILL DION SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.8%OPS-against.834
vs Left-handedK%32.3%OPS-against.769
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.734K%21.3%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

WSH BATTERS vs RYAN GUSTO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIA BATTERS vs WILL DION

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIA 1·WSH 2
4-game set · gm 4 of 4
2026 SEASON
MIA 12·WSH 6
18 played · 1 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%WSH
MIA 159 · WSH 196 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-30MIA 6-2
2026-08-29WSH 5-4 · One-run game
2026-08-28WSH 9-2 · Blowout
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIA55¢ · 55%
WSH50¢ · 50%
Total 8.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
MIA -1.5 ·
WSH +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT54.5598.598.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

MIA OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

WSH OFFENSE

.283L15 team wOBA
-33 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT91° · 4mph out to LF
NATIONALS PARK
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
91°F
Wind4 mph out to LF
Humidity44%
Rain7%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO