Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Jackson Jobe · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
DET @ MIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIN to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
MIN F5
44%
Game Total
Over 8.5
43%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
47%
Run Line
MIN -1.5
35%
Team Total
DET Over 4.5
38%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.24 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
DET SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
22%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
43%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
30%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
MIN SP · vs. DET
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
80%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
64%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
17%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
78%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
37%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
48%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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