MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Peter Lambert · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
opp puts the ball in play, holds Ks down
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CWS @ HOU · full-game reads
Moneyline
HOU to win
61%
1st 5 Innings
HOU F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
49%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
HOU -1.5
43%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
37%
Team Total
HOU Over 4.5
48%
THE READ
HOU projects to outscore CWS by 0.81 runs across 5,000 trials.
CWS SP · vs. HOU
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
35%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
49%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
5%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
57%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
42%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
HOU SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
57%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
12%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
46%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
32%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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