BETFLYAISIGN IN
BALTIMOREBAL
68-69 · +4 AL EAST · W3 · 7-3 L10
@MON 8:40 PM ETCOL HOME PARK
52-85 · +5 NL WEST · L4 · 2-8 L10
COLORADOCOL
Weather
86°F · 8mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Sean Barber K-0.3%
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Cade Povich
LHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
4.45
IP
28.1
K/9
6.7
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.41
L5 STARTS4.86 ERA · 19.8% K · 7.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
43%
23%
16%
9%
9%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinkerChangeup
Tanner Gordon
RHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+86
ERA
5.38
IP
83.2
K/9
7.4
BB/9
1.6
WHIP
1.43
L5 STARTS4.29 ERA · 14.8% K · 1.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
27%
21%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS10 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Tanner Gordon · Over 4.5 5+ Ks

high-K profile + cooperative opp

-106 FanDuel51% book73% +21pp

Hunter Goodman · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

middle-order + runners-on profile

+136 DraftKings42% book60% +17pp

TJ Rumfield · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

cleanup spot + hot bat = RBI machine

+180 BetRivers36% book52% +16pp

Willi Castro · Over 0.5 1+ RBIs

middle-order + runners-on profile

+195 BetRivers34% book46% +12pp

Gunnar Henderson · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

vs this arm — career SLG over .500

+106 Caesars49% book60% +11pp

Hunter Goodman · Over 0.5 1+ HR

matchup grade lights up the HR pricing

+320 Caesars24% book34% +10pp

Jackson Holliday · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

vs this arm — career SLG over .500

-114 DraftKings53% book62% +8pp

Jake McCarthy · Under 1.5 <2 Total Bases

vs this arm — career SLG over .500

-114 Caesars53% book60% +7pp

Mickey Moniak · Over 0.5 1+ HR

platoon edge + park boost

+425 Caesars19% book25% +6pp

Connor Norby · Under 0.5 <1 Hits

hot bat vs Povich

+182 DraftKings35% book41% +5pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETOrioles 62%

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

BAL COL

Game Markets

BAL @ COL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

COL F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

71%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

70%

Run Line

COL -1.5

27%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

68%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

52%

THE READ

BAL projects to outscore COL by 1.53 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 6.60, COL 5.07
  • Cade Povich (BAL) vs Tanner Gordon (COL)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
CP

Cade Povich

BAL SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

9%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

70%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

45%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.2 strikeouts
  • 59% to reach 5+ against COL
TG

Tanner Gordon

COL SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

43%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

76%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

64%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against BAL
HG

Hunter Goodman

COL · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

40%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

56%

Total Bases

3+ bases

46%

Total Bases

4+ bases

42%

RBIs

1+ RBI

52%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

28%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 40% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Cade Povich
PA

Pete Alonso

BAL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

37%

Hits

1+ hits

85%

Hits

2+ hits

51%

Total Bases

2+ bases

68%

Total Bases

3+ bases

53%

Total Bases

4+ bases

45%

RBIs

1+ RBI

56%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

30%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 37% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
SB

Samuel Basallo

BAL · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

37%

Total Bases

2+ bases

54%

Total Bases

3+ bases

39%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

45%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
MM

Mickey Moniak

COL · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

28%

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

37%

Total Bases

4+ bases

31%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 28% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cade Povich
BA

Blaze Alexander

BAL · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

40%

Total Bases

2+ bases

53%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 40% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
CC

Colton Cowser

BAL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

24%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

21%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 21% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
CM

Coby Mayo

BAL · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

36%

Total Bases

4+ bases

27%

RBIs

1+ RBI

43%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 20% against 16% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
GH

Gunnar Henderson

BAL · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

50%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

39%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
JM

Jake McCarthy

COL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Cade Povich
DB

Dylan Beavers

BAL · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

16%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
JH

Jackson Holliday

BAL · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

34%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 34% against 31% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
TR

TJ Rumfield

COL · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 70%.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Cade Povich
WC

Willi Castro

COL · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

41%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Cade Povich
TJ

Troy Johnston

COL · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 66% against 70%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cade Povich
LT

Leody Taveras

BAL · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 65% against 70%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Facing Tanner Gordon
CN

Connor Norby

COL · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 64% against 70%.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Cade Povich
JB

Jordan Beck

COL · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

18%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 70%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Cade Povich
ET

Ezequiel Tovar

COL · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

56%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 56% against 70%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Facing Cade Povich
— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CADE POVICH SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.5%OPS-against.583
vs Left-handedK%11.9%OPS-against.118
COL vs RHP (team)OPS.754K%21.9%

TANNER GORDON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%18.7%OPS-against.856
vs Left-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.900
BAL vs LHP (team)OPS.720K%25.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

COL BATTERS vs CADE POVICH

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs TANNER GORDON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 0·COL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 0·COL 0
0 played · 19 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%BAL
BAL 10 · COL 8 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2025-07-27BAL 5-1
2025-07-26BAL 18-0 · Blowout
2025-07-25COL 6-5 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BAL55¢ · 55%
COL49¢ · 49%
Total 11
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
BAL -1.5— · —
COL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT11→10.5→11→10.5→11last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.300L15 team wOBA
-16 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

COL OFFENSE

.298L15 team wOBA
-18 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT86° · 8mph out to LF
COORS FIELD
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.18 · +
Doubles factor1.18 · +

Altitude — extreme run environment.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
86°F
Wind8 mph out to LF
Humidity18%
Rain12%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE
BARBER
Called K rate-0.3% vs avg
Runs per 9—
Games this yr271

Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

ORIOLES 62%

Mean score sim 6.6–5.1 · projected total 11.7 runs · built on locked lineups

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