ATLANTAATL
82-56 · +1 NL EAST · L1 · 7-3 L10
@2026-08-31WSH HOME PARK
66-74 · +4 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
WASHINGTONWSH
Weather
85°F · 2mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
2-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBraves 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

ATL WSH

Game Markets

ATL @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ATL to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

54%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

28%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

ATL projects to outscore WSH by 0.92 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: ATL 5.14, WSH 4.21
  • AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) vs Jake Irvin (WSH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AS

AJ Smith-Shawver

ATL SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

42%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.4 strikeouts
  • 24% to reach 5+ against WSH
JI

Jake Irvin

WSH SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

27%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

30%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against ATL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

WSH vs LHP (team)OPS.780K%23.8%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.730K%22.1%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

WSH BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

ATL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
ATL 0·WSH 0
2-game set · gm 1 of 2
2026 SEASON
ATL 8·WSH 3
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%ATL
ATL 173 · WSH 157 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-02ATL 4-2
2026-08-01ATL 8-3
2026-07-31ATL 6-2
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
ATL62¢ · 62%
WSH41¢ · 41%
Total 9.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
ATL -1.5 ·
WSH +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT109.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

ATL OFFENSE

.293L15 team wOBA
-23 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

WSH OFFENSE

.287L15 team wOBA
-29 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT85° · 2mph out to LF
NATIONALS PARK
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
85°F
Wind2 mph out to LF
Humidity68%
Rain12%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

BRAVES 57%

Mean score sim 5.14.2 · projected total 9.3 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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